The overall target of the Syrian Arab Republic’s energy policy aims at ensuring supply security by providing energy services to all segments of society at effective and affordable prices appropriate to Syrian economic conditions. In accomplishing this goal, Syrian energy policy is faced with three main challenges: (1) expanding the gas market; (2) sustaining oil production; and (3) developing the country’s power capacity. To overcome these challenges, the following general implementation measures are considered:

• Reconstructing damaged infrastructure;

• Reducing technical losses and illegal consumption;

• Improving energy efficiency;

• Encouraging the use of renewables and nuclear options;

• Establishing a cost oriented price policy;

• Conserving oil and substituting it with gas;

• Attracting foreign investments in the oil, gas and power sectors;

• Exploiting the geographical situation as a conjunction point between gas demanding regions (mainly in Europe) and countries with huge resources (the Islamic Republic of Iran and Gulf countries);

• Exploring and exploiting the coastal gas resources in the Mediterranean Sea.

A key challenge for the Syrian natural gas industry is logistical, with gas reserves located mainly in northeastern Syria, while the general population is centred in western and southern Syria. The Syrian Petroleum Company is currently working to increase Syria’s gas production through several projects aimed at expanding and developing the national natural gas network. In addition, the electricity generation policy has the priority to substitute natural gas for oil in the existing stations and convert natural gas power plants to combined cycle wherever possible. Moreover, the Government is in the process of relaxing state monopolies over the power sector. There are many efforts to reinforce transmission and distribution networks, and to improve the quality of customer services.

Covering future energy needs in respect to the sustainable development of energy sector forms is the main objective of the energy policy. Responding to the high increase in energy consumption and increasing economic, financial and environmental burdens, and taking into account the unique and special requirements of the reconstruction process, the Syrian Arab Republic has made noticeable efforts over the past two decades to explore possible energy conservation and efficiency improvement measures, in order to reduce energy demand on the one hand and substitute the exhaustible fossil fuels with renewable and nuclear alternatives on the other. The importance of energy conservation and energy efficiency policy in the context of sustainable development has regained political momentum. Recent developments on the energy market have seen highly volatile oil prices, increased awareness of the need for energy security and growing energy related environmental problems, including the threat of climate change. In this context, energy conservation and efficiency improvements can benefit both society and the environment by reducing atmospheric pollution; lessening negative externalities resulting from energy production; boosting industrial competitiveness; generating employment and business opportunities; improving the housing stock and the comfort level of occupants; enhancing productivity; increasing the security of supply; and contributing to poverty alleviation, among other aspects.

In this context, the period from 2000 to 2010 witnessed remarkable national activities in the field of energy system analysis. A series of studies related to the future picture of this sector through various scenarios for energy and electricity demand development were carried out, and a well qualified and specialized national team was built, supported by different international organizations. IAEA tools and advanced methods such as Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED), Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP), Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) and Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of Electricity Generation (SIMPACTS) were used.

A Law on Energy Conservation was enacted by the Ministry of Electricity in 2009 to fulfil the country’s sustainable development requirements, with an emphasis on disseminating energy conservation concepts and energy efficiency actions, improving energy saving and deploying various renewable energy applications.

Through this law, the relevant institutions shall be committed to energy conservation and efficiency practices, use renewable energies in all sectors of their activities and use highly energy efficient equipment.

To assess the influence of climate change and the impact of the Kyoto protocol on the future development of the Syrian energy sector, the Ministry of the Environment, with the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), finalized a project entitled Enabling Activities for the Preparation of Syria’s Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC. Furthermore, the Syrian Arab Republic joined the Paris Agreement about greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation on 18 November 2017, and Syrian nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are being prepared.

Syrian fossil resources are limited to oil and natural gas. The proven geological oil reserves are estimated to be almost 24 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE), of which 6.9 BBOE are extractable. By 2003, almost 4.3 BBOE had already been extracted and the remaining oil reserves are estimated to about 2.6 BBOE. The proven geological reserve of natural gas in Syria is estimated at 612 billion cubic meter (Bm³), of which 371 Bm³ are extractable. Sixty Bm³ had been produced through 2003 and the remaining reserve is about 311 Bm³. Key indicators for the Syrian energy sources are presented in Table 1.

The estimated geological reserve of natural gas of all kinds in Syria is about 705 Bm³, while the production of disposable reserves is about 405 Bm³. According to the Oil and Gas Journal, as of 1 January 2010, Syria’s proven natural gas reserves were estimated at 240 Bm³, about half of which is associated gas.

TABLE 1. ESTIMATED AVAILABLE ENERGY SOURCES

* Solid, liquid: million tonnes; gas: billion m3; uranium: metric tonnes; hydro, renewable: TW.

n.a.: data not applicable.

Source: MOPMR, 2009, Reserves and expected annual productions of oil and natural gas, official letter to prime minister, Damascus (in Arabic).

The main statistical indicators of the Syrian energy system related to energy production, consumption and the ratios of electricity production/energy production and external dependency are presented in Table 2.

TABLE 2. ENERGY STATISTICS

Source: Ministry of Electricity reports and EB for the years mentioned.

The Syrian generation sector relies mainly upon fossil fuels, which have had a share above 80% of the electricity mix over the past two decades. For the future development of the electricity generation system, Syrian electricity policy focuses on the following issues:

• Reconstructing the damaged infrastructure;

• Improving technical performance of the existing power plants;

• Enhancing the electrical load factor of the power system;

• Substituting heavy fuel oil (HFO) by natural gas;

• Enhancing the average system efficiency by increasing the share of combined cycle (CC);

• Increasing the share of clean technologies by encouraging renewables and nuclear options;

• Reducing technical losses and illegal consumption of distribution networks.

To analyse and evaluate the future development of the electricity generation sector, two future scenarios were developed by the Energy Planning Group reflecting the most favourable development trends of the Syrian power sector. Both scenarios depend on the least costly expansion approach of generated electricity units over the study period 2005–2030. The first development trend refers to the reference scenario that reflects the baseline development in formulating the future optimal expansion plan of the generation sector under a set of limits and constraints that reflect the technological features of available, committed and future power plant candidates, the availability of domestic fuel resources and the import and export possibilities. The second is an alternative expansion scenario, the so-called clean technology scenario (CTS), which focuses on introducing policy measures in terms of energy saving and clean technologies (renewable, nuclear, natural gas firing) that help in reducing GHG emissions.

Following the reference scenario results, electricity generation will increase from 34 TWh in 2005 to about 148.4 TWh by 2030. The optimal expansion plan shows an increase of installed capacity from 6200 MW to 29 600 MW. The new capacity addition is distributed to 14 360 MW for CC, 12200 MW for heavy fuel fired steam power plants, 900 MW gas turbine, 300 MW wind turbines and 1600 MW for two nuclear power plants that will enter the system in 2020 and 2025.

The optimal expansion plan of CTS shows that the installed capacity will be 32 360 MW by 2030. The new capacity addition comprises 2000 MW for wind, 2000 MW for photovoltaic and 1000 for concentrated solar power; remaining are thermal power plants and two nuclear power plants as in the reference scenario.

The Ministry of Electricity is responsible for investment, tariffs, planning, and policy formulation in the power sector. The structure of the Syrian electric system related to the Ministry of Electricity is shown in Fig. 1.

FIG. 1. The organizational structure of the Ministry of Electricity.

During the period 1994–2011, peak load demands grew from 2474 MW to 9034 MW, showing an average growth rate of 7.9%. To cope with the increase in both peak load and electricity demand, the available installed capacity increased from 3600 MW to 8500 MW. Thus, the reserve margin of more than 30% in 2000 gradually decreased and the system showed a deficit in the installed capacity in 2006 and 2007 that resulted in real power shortages during peak time. In 2011, the total generated electricity reached about 49 TWh, which was distributed to 95% for thermal and 5% for hydro generation. Due to the limited generation of hydro power, the increasing electricity demand led to steady increases in the use of fossil fuel for generation purposes, mainly by HFO and natural gas. During the period 1994–2011 the share of hydro power generation fluctuated heavily between 20% and 5%, following water availability in the Euphrates River. Thus, over the whole period the share of thermal generation exceeded 80% and reached more than 95% in 2011. Hence, the fossil fuel consumption in the electricity generation, consisting of HFO, natural gas and small amounts of diesel, increased from 3 to 10.2 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) between 1994 and 2011.

Between 2011 and 2016, the electricity sector was heavily affected owing to the crisis. Many power plants were out of service, with bad consequences for both electricity demand and supply (available capacity of the system and the electricity generation as well).

According to the technical statistical report for 2016 prepared by PEEGT, of the total installed capacity of 9685 MW in 2016 only 5227 MW was available. However, taking into account the fuel availability, this number may decrease to less than 30%. Moreover, it is expected that the available electricity capacity relative to the fuel availability had shrunk by 2015 to less than 30% of its level in 2010. Thus, by 2016 the total electricity generation dropped from to19.05 TWh compared with 49TWh in 2011.

During this 7 year period, the generated hydropower electricity was heavily affected, and the generated electricity dropped from 2998 GWh in 2011 to 929 in 2016 (EB, 2011, 2016).

TABLE 3. INSTALLED CAPACITY, ELECTRICITYPRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

Source: MOE reports (1990–2000–2010–2015–2016).

TABLE 4. ENERGY RELATED RATIOS

Sources: MOE reports (1990–2000–2010–2015–2016), Statistical abstract 2017 from National Central Bureau. MOE published energy balances (1990–2000–2010–2015–2016).

Law No. 12 of 1976 promulgated the establishment of the Atomic Energy Commission of Syria (AECS). In 1979, AECS assumed its duties as a governmental agency responsible for peaceful utilization of atomic and nuclear technologies. Research departments, facilities and laboratories were founded and staffed with a skilled workforce to carry out basic and applied research in the fields of atomic and nuclear applications. The AECS represents the Syrian Arab Republic in regional and international gatherings related to nuclear and atomic issues. In 1963, the Syrian Arab Republic became a Member State of the International Atomic Energy Agency. It fulfilled its international obligations with respect to nuclear safeguards by signing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1967. The AECS complies with radiation safety regulations and is the regulatory authority in the Syrian Arab Republic. Considering the nuclear power programme, the AECS became the most appropriate organization in the Syrian Arab Republic to assess design options, establish user requirements and prepare bid documents. Regarding the country’s preparation to introduce a first nuclear power plant (NPP), the following main achievements can be noted:

• In the years 1980–1985, AECS, in cooperation with the Ministry of Electricity, initiated the first steps toward a nuclear power programme. At that time, a site selection study was conducted in cooperation with the Soviet Union. The first NPP was supposed to be a Soviet design (WWER). However, the project was suspended after the Chernobyl accident.

• During the period 1999–2009, a comprehensive long term analysis of the Syrian energy system was performed, aimed at projecting the future final energy and electricity demand and formulating an optimal energy supply strategy up to 2030. The main focus was on the development of an optimal expansion plan for an electricity generation system to identify the optimal future generation mix and evaluate the possible role of the nuclear option and the time schedule for the introduction of the first NPP on the basis of least-cost expansion. For this purpose, various IAEA analysis tools (e.g. MAED, WASP, MESSAGE and SIMPACTS) were employed and two technical cooperation projects with the IAEA were completed. The optimization results indicate that the first NPP, with a capacity of about 1000 MW, would enter the generation system in 2020.

• During the same period, significant effort was put into human resources development (HRD) and capacity building related to the nuclear power project, in addition to the preparation of preliminary user requirements for NPPs and a feasibility study for a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

• In compliance with IAEA rules and agreements, the AECS has established the Radiological and Nuclear Regulatory Office (RNRO).

• In 2009, the higher steering committee for the NPP was established. It sends its reports to the Prime Minister and has responsibilities similar to those of the Nuclear Energy Programme Implementing Organization (NEPIO).

• Also in 2009, two committees were established, one at the AECS to deal with regulatory, nuclear safety, environmentaland hydrological aspects, and another at the Ministry of Electricity to deal with issues of technical infrastructures related to electric power plants and the national grid.

Figure 2 represents the organizational structure of the Syrian energy sector. The AECS is responsible for all activities related to the peaceful applications of atomic energy in the fields of agriculture, medicine and industry. The AECS also represents the Syrian Arab Republic’s membership in the IAEA and in other organizations. Ministerial Decision No. 6514 of 1997 specifies the functions of the AECS as the regulatory body for radiation safety in the Syrian Arab Republic. Legislative Decree No. 64 of 2005 was issued by the President of the Syrian Arab Republic. This legislative decree complies with the international standards as specified in IAEA Safety Standards Series No. GSR Part 3, Radiation Protection and Safety of Radiation Sources: International Basic Safety Standards, and GSR Part 1 (Rev. 1), Governmental, Legal and Regulatory Framework for Safety. It nominates the AECS as the regulatory authority with respect to radiation protection and the safety and security of radiation sources.

The Ministry of Electricity is exclusively responsible for the utilization of electric power plants. Thus, the operation of a possible future NPP will be also under this responsibility.

FIG. 2. Diagram illustrating the organizational structure of the Syrian energy system.

There is no nuclear power plant in operation, under construction or decommissioned in the Syrian Arab Republic. According to the long term energy planning studies in the Syrian Arab Republic, the nuclear option was anticipated to contribute to the national electricity production by 2020. During the period 2020–2030, two nuclear reactors, with a total capacity of 1600 MW, would have operated.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

The Syrian energy supply strategy recently highlighted the competitive role of the nuclear option in future energy supply mix. There is a willingness to consider the nuclear option for electricity generation. This acceptance is due to the recently developed supply strategy, which indicated that the Syrian Arab Republic was going to encounter serious problems in covering its future energy demand after 2015. For the time being, the Syrian Arab Republic has maintained a reasonable energy balance. However, as primary energy demand in the Syrian Arab Republic increases by an average rate of 5%, oil production is steadily decreasing, and natural gas production is limited, the country will depend more and more on energy imports. This import was expected to reach 16% of primary energy demand in 2015 and more than 45% in 2020. Thus, in view of the positive supply security features of the nuclear option, introducing it into the Syrian electricity generation system during the period 2020–2025 will increase supply security and mitigate possible socioeconomic concerns.

After a conference held in 2010 on energy options in the Syrian Arab Republic, the Government took a decision to consider nuclear power as one electricity generation option.

The only indication is the recently undertaken effort to support infrastructure development for the future nuclear power programme in the Syrian Arab Republic in the form of a technical cooperation project with the IAEA Conducting a Technical and Economic Feasibility Study and Site Selection for a Nuclear Power Plant (SYR/0/020), which aimed at:

• Defining technical specifications and performing an economic evaluation of the most suitable NPP, technically and economically;

• Selecting an adequate NPP depending on technical, safety, economic, financial and performance characteristics;

• Identifying site parameters that affect the plant design;

• Establishing a national coordination framework for the national nuclear power programme;

• Establishing a legal framework and a national technical qualification system;

• Evaluating the development status in the Syrian Arab Republic regarding nuclear infrastructure and user requirements for introducing the first NPP.

The first NPP was planned to be a turnkey project with some national participation. It is expected that these issues will be addressed in the framework of the ongoing international efforts led by the IAEA to solve the problems of nuclear fuel supply and spent fuel disposal for new countries embarking on nuclear power programmes for peaceful applications.

As previously mentioned, the first NPP would be managed mainly by AECS in cooperation with the Ministry of Electricity. No NEPIO has been established, as required by IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-T-3.6. However, a higher steering committee for an NPP (reporting to the Prime Minister) was established in 2009, with powers and responsibilities similar to those of a NEPIO. Moreover, two committees were also established in 2009. AECS is responsible for the reactor engineering aspects, regulatory, nuclear safety, and nuclear fuel cycle issues. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Electricity will deal with issues such as the technical infrastructure related to electric power plants and the national grid.

In 2008 and 2009, AECS produced two technical reports on the main criteria for selecting a future NPP in the Syrian Arab Republic. Older reports are also available at the Ministry of Electricity. However, these reports date back to 1980 and deal with a Soviet NPP design.

In the case of the Syrian Arab Republic, there is an understanding of the required national strategy for accomplishing Phase II of introducing the first NPP. The draft User Requirements for introducing the first NPP are being prepared and can serve as a starting point for a comprehensive report.

It is expected that the Syrian Government, with possible support from regional funding sources, will fund the first NPP. However, a financial and economic evaluation would have been one of the important outputs of the technical cooperation project with the IAEA (SYR/0/020).

The present and future electric grid capacity in the Syrian Arab Republic is adequate to incorporate an NPP as a base load source. However, the present grid stability needs further improvement. Currently, regional interconnection with seven Arab countries in addition to Turkey is available. The electric grid interconnection around the Mediterranean is planned to be completed in the next 10 years.

As previously mentioned, several documents from a previous study for site specification and an environmental impact assessment (EIA) are available. However, these documents need detailed review and evaluation. According to the EIA, AECS is responsible and has good expertise.

Perceptions and awareness of the NPP tend to vary greatly between the public and experts. Gaining an informed understanding of public perception and awareness of nuclear risk will promote a more enhanced policy and decision making process. Thus, public awareness of nuclear risk is an important factor to activate stakeholder activities and mechanisms for communication with different stakeholders in the Syrian Arab Republic, especially in knowing that stakeholder involvement may pose a challenge. At the national level, the Syrian Government, especially the Ministries of Information (media), Electricity and Education and the AECS, will play a dominant role in raising public awareness about nuclear power; support from national stakeholders and local communities will be essential for the sustainability of any Syrian nuclear power programme.

The research infrastructure at the AECS is especially devoted to research programmes addressing the peaceful application of nuclear energy. The AECS is responsible for defining the basis of the national policy and the related plans and programmes regarding the peaceful utilization of nuclear energy in the Syrian Arab Republic. This includes executing and supporting research, analysis and studies that might lead to scientific, technological and economic development related to the utilization of nuclear energy; establishing research and training centres, laboratories and test facilities; educating personnel in the nuclear field; cooperating with universities and related organizations; and preparing and implementing decrees and regulations to determine the basis for nuclear and radiological safety.

The AECS conducts experimental and theoretical studies at its laboratories and implements projects with international and local institutions. This includes R&D activities related to:

• Reactor physics and shielding calculation using adequate analysis tools;

• Thermal hydraulic and reactor safety analysis, with special emphasis on research reactors;

• Reactor kinetics to measure selected miniature neutron source reactor (MNSR) kinetic parameters;

• Radiation protection with a focus on medical and industrial applications;

• Advanced non-destructive testing expertise with application in oil and other industry branches;

• Activities related to medical radioisotope production.

Not applicable.

The cooperative activities related to nuclear applications are performed by the AECS in cooperation with the IAEA. Over the past three decades, the AECS has implemented many technical cooperation and coordinated research projects with the IAEA. The AECS received IAEA experts in different fields, such as in energy planning, research reactor INSAR mission, radiation protection and radiological regulation.

In addition, the IAEA’s technical cooperation and coordinated research projects (CRPs) proved to be important tools for promoting national research activities in different fields of interest in nuclear technology. The following are relevant technical cooperation projects and CRPs implemented during the past decade:

• Technical cooperation project (SYR/0/006) Energy and Nuclear Power Planning Study: On Analysis of Energy and Electricity Demand Projection in the Syrian Arab Republic (covering the period 1999–2030);

• Comparative Assessment of Electricity Generation Options (RAS/0/043);

• Assessing the Economic Viability of Alternative Energy Supply Options to Meet Energy and Water Challenges in ARASIA Region (RAS/2/017);

• Technical and Economic Feasibility Study and Site Selection for a Nuclear Power Plant (SYR/0/020);

• Supporting Strategic Planning to Meet Future Energy Needs in ARASIA Member States (RAS/0/052);

• CRP (CRP12216) Safety Significance of Postulated Initiating Events for Different Research Reactor Types and Assessment of Analytical Tools (J7.10.10);

• CRP (CRP15044) Innovative Methods in Research Reactor Analysis: Benchmark against Experimental Data on Neutronics and Thermal Hydraulic Computational Methods and Tools for Operation and Safety Analysis of Research Reactors;

• Improving Utilization of Miniature Neutron Source Reactor (SYR/4/009);

• Energy and Nuclear Power Planning Study (SYR/0/006);

• Nuclear Safety (SYR/9/005);

• Research Reactor (SYR/4/002);

• Nuclear Analytical Laboratory (SYR/0/004);

• Uranium Exploration (SYR/3/002), (SYR/3/004);

• Uranium Recovery from Phosphoric Acid (SYR/3/003);

• Nuclear Electronics (SYR/4/003), Nuclear Electronics (Phase II) (SYR/4/005);

• Waste Management (SYR/9/004);

• Human Resource Development and Nuclear Technology Support (SYR/0/019).

Figure 3 is a chart indicating the position of the Radiological and Nuclear Regulatory Office within the AECS organizational structure.

FIG. 3. Organizational structure of the AECS.

Presidential Decree No. 64 of 2005 was issued on 3 August 2005 by the President of the Syrian Arab Republic. This legislative decree complies with the international standards as specified in GSR Part 3 and GSR Part 1, the commitments of the Syrian Government in its letter to the IAEA’s Director General regarding the application of the code of conduct and Security Council Decision No. 1541. It nominates the AECS as:

• The regulatory authority for radiation protection and the safety and security of radiation sources;

• Responsible for emergency planning and coordination for radiological or nuclear accidents;

• The competent authority responsible for issuing approval certificates for package design.

The AECS is required by this legislative decree to establish a regulatory body to carry out the duties assigned by this legislative decree and to appropriately staff it and provide needed resources.

The AECS therefore established the Radiological and Nuclear Regulatory Office (RNRO) by Decision No. 23 of 10 October 2006.

By the above mentioned legislative decree, the AECS is empowered to:

• Prepare regulations, to be issued by the Prime Minister;

• Issue authorizations;

• Perform inspections; inspectors have the powers of the judicial police;

• Impose enforcement actions;

• Undertake measures to detect illicit trafficking;

• Verify the absence of contamination exceeding permissible limits in the goods imported to or crossing into the Syrian Arab Republic;

• Promote a protection, safety and security culture among the public.

Moreover, this legislative decree prescribes sanctions in case of non-compliance. The sanctions scheme takes into account the risk associated with the radiation sources. It also defines the civil liability for damages due to radiological or nuclear accidents.

By this legislative decree the Radiation Protection and Safety and Security of Radiation Sources Committee was established to support the AECS.

All regulatory functions are controlled by: (1) Ministerial Decree No. 134 of 17 January 2007, General Regulations on Radiation Protection and Safety and Security of Radiation Sources and (2) Detailed Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Materials (Decision No. 206/2016 of 15 December 2016) based on IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSR-6, Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Material (2012).

The process for obtaining a licence from the regulatory authority is as follows:

• The licensee submits an application form to the AEC–RNRO, containing all detailed data and information about the activity (responsibilities, radiation sources, location, workers, monitoring, emergencies, etc.). For some activities, the radiation protection programme should be attached to the form.

• The RNRO assesses the application and radiation protection programme. If the submitted documents are sufficient, the RNRO pays a visit to the site to inspect it and check the availability of safety arrangements.

Only then may a decision be taken to issue an authorization. However, if there is lack of some information, data or safety arrangements, a letter shall be sent to the licensee for further action.

Prof. Ibrahim Othman

Director General

Atomic Energy Commission of Syria

atomic@aec.org.sy

iothman@aec.org.sy