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(SEP/03) Studies on Nuclear Fusion Energy Potential Based on a Long-term World Energy and Environment Model

K. Tokimatsu1), J. Fujino2), Y. Asaoka3), Y. Ogawa4), K. Okano3), T. Yoshida3), R. Hiwatari3), S. Konishi5), S. Nishio5), K. Yamaji4), and Y. Kaya1)
1) Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Tokyo, Japan
2) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
3) Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo, Japan
4) The University of Tokyo (UT), Tokyo, Japan
5) Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI), Naka, Japan

Abstract.  This study investigates introduction conditions and potential of nuclear fusion energy as energy supply and CO2 mitigation technologies in the 21st century. Time horizon of the 21st century, 10 regionally allocated world energy/environment model (Linearized Dynamic New Earth 21) is used for this study. Following nuclear fusion technological data are taken into consideration: cost of electricity (COE) in nuclear fusion introduction year, annual COE reduction rates, regional introduction year, and maximum regional plant capacity constraints by maximum plant construction speed. We made simulation under a constraint of atmospheric CO2 concentration of 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) targeted at year 2100, assuming that sequestration technologies and unknown innovative technologies for CO2 reduction are available. The results indicate that under the 550ppm scenario with nuclear fusion within maximum construction speed, 66mill/kWh is required for introducing nuclear fusion in 2050, 92 mill/kWh in 2060, and 106 mill/kWh in 2070. Therefore, tokamak type nuclear fusion reactors of present several reactor cost estimates are expected to be introduced between 2060 and 2070, and electricity generation fraction by nuclear fusion will go around 20% in 2100 if nuclear fusion energy growth is limited only by the maximum construction speed. CO2 reduction by nuclear fusion introduced in 2050 from business-as-usual (BAU) scenario without nuclear fusion is about 20% of total reduction amount in 2100. In conclusion, nuclear fusion energy is revealed to be one of the candidates of energy supply technologies and CO2 mitigation technologies. Cost competitiveness and removal of capacity constraint factors are desired for use of nuclear fusion energy in a large scale.

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IAEA 2001