(SEP/03) Studies on Nuclear Fusion Energy Potential Based on a Long-term World Energy and Environment Model

**Abstract.** This study investigates introduction conditions and potential of
nuclear fusion energy as energy supply and
CO_{2} mitigation
technologies in the 21st century. Time horizon of the 21st century, 10
regionally allocated world energy/environment model (Linearized Dynamic New
Earth 21) is used for this study. Following nuclear fusion technological
data are taken into consideration: cost of electricity (COE) in nuclear
fusion introduction year, annual COE reduction rates, regional introduction
year, and maximum regional plant capacity constraints by maximum plant
construction speed. We made simulation under a constraint of atmospheric
CO_{2} concentration of 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) targeted
at year 2100, assuming that sequestration technologies and unknown
innovative technologies for
CO_{2} reduction are available. The results
indicate that under the 550ppm scenario with nuclear fusion within maximum
construction speed, 66mill/kWh is required for introducing nuclear fusion in
2050, 92 mill/kWh in 2060, and 106 mill/kWh in 2070. Therefore, tokamak type
nuclear fusion reactors of present several reactor cost estimates are
expected to be introduced between 2060 and 2070, and electricity generation
fraction by nuclear fusion will go around 20% in 2100 if nuclear fusion
energy growth is limited only by the maximum construction speed.
CO_{2}
reduction by nuclear fusion introduced in 2050 from business-as-usual (BAU)
scenario without nuclear fusion is about 20% of total reduction amount in
2100. In conclusion, nuclear fusion energy is revealed to be one of the
candidates of energy supply technologies and
CO_{2} mitigation
technologies. Cost competitiveness and removal of capacity constraint
factors are desired for use of nuclear fusion energy in a large scale.

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*IAEA 2001*